peaks, valleys and plans - posted September 16

So my tempo run 2 weeks kicked some butt. I felt good and was really trying to keep my level of effort (breathing/turnover) hard and yet still smooth. It panned out. I don't run w/GPS so I don't have a clue what pace I'm running at any given point. Management of my run is all by feel and paying attention to my effort level. I really try to pay attention to my breathing and turnover and keep them relatively the same for the run - factoring in hills and getting tired towards the end of the run which obviously will decrease turnover and increase breathing. The course I usually run my tempo (at work) is a long gradual uphill, followed by ~3/4 mile slight downhill and then more rolling hills that are mostly up (so they seem). It's not 'ideal' for a tempo workout but good for varying my effort and trying to keep a consistent pace.
The workout:
warm-up 1.6m 8:16mpm
tempo 1.8m 6:42mpm
tempo 0.8 6:43mpm
tempo 2.1m 7:05mpm
cool down 1.7m 8:52mpm
7.94m total (7:36 mpm avg pace)
Nice! I did peter out at the end of the tempo but really felt okay about my effort. The tempo pace is faster than I have done before - by about 20 seconds.
Note to self: that does not translate to a marathon pace of 20 seconds faster!

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So while I was out on my long run this past Saturday I again caught myself thinking that I could lop off another 9:21 from my marathon PR. This would put me at 3:20:59 and thus a BQ. My mind was really spinning as I struggled along.
I eventually came to the conclusion that I'm fu#king high if I think that's possible. That's a 7:40 pace - for the whole race! After struggling through the 22 miles, I looked back at my splits from Boston 2009 and I only ran 3 miles at a sub-7:40 mpm (see below). Also, if my past marathon performances have been any indicator, I'd have to bank 5-6 minutes (at least) to account for the late race fade.
(I have noticed that faster marathon times help me avoid late race cramping. I guess I can call that incentive to run faster.)

This may be a bit of a surprise, but I never really set a specific target pace or put a race plan together (scheduled splits) for any of my previous 9 marathons. Granted I had an idea of what time I wanted to run, but never really set a 'goal' per say. I actually mentioned this to a friend just before Boston and he said he could never run a race without a plan. I don't know if I could follow a plan to any level of precision just because there are so many unknowns that can and do occur in the course of a marathon. I have always had an idea of what I wanted to run but I typically ran at a level that I felt comfortable at and tried to hold it for as long as possible. Running to a specific plan seems like a situation ripe for disappointment. The scenario plays out sort like this...
- a goal pace is missed for a mile
- okay, make it up in the next mile
- miss the new goal time and have to make up even more
- repeat
- get tired and fall apart from mental exhaustion

(This doesn't really hold true to my 5K PR - I latched onto 3 guys who were running a 6:30 pace and held onto them until about the 2.9 mile mark. I ran a PR but not the sub-20 I was hoping for. Die another day I guess).

Now I'm pondering the thought of 1) a BQ and 2) running to a plan in a marathon? Not to mention, this will be on a course that I'm completely unfamiliar with (a few bumpy hills, portions that are dirt/wood chip paths and the potential for heat being that it's in NC)?
I just can't figure out if I'm serious about giving it a legitimate shot. I think it's too much pressure to put on myself and might detract from the level of satisfaction I get from running (I dare not call it enjoyment.) There's still just under 2 months to convince myself to try and go for it...or not.
I know what the eventual plan will sound like - run like hell, see if the 7:40ish pace is manageable and try and hold on. Let's see if we can execute it.


Boston '09 splits and the time I'd have to carve to BQ
Mile 1: 8:14 (-34)
Mile 2: 7:46 (-6)
Mile 3: 7:46 (-6)
Mile 4: 7:45 (-6)
Mile 5 : 7:51 (-11)
Mile 6: 7:48 (-8)
Mile 7: 7:49 (-9)
Mile 8: 7:47 (-7)
Mile 9: 7:46 (-6)
Mile 10: 7:36 (stet)
Mile 11: 7:39 (stet)
Mile 12: 7:44 (-4)
Mile 13: 7:48 (-8)
Mile 14: 7:48 (-8)
Mile 15: 7:27 (stet)
Mile 16: 7:44 (-4)
Mile 17: 8:09 (-29)
Mile 18: 8:09 (-29)
Mile 19: 8:08 (-28)
Mile 20: 8:12 (-32)
Mile 21: 8:47 (-1:07!)
Mile 22: 8:05 (-25)
Mile 23: 8:39 (-59)
Mile 24: 8:57 (-1:17!)
Mile 25: 8:41 (-1:01!)
Mile 26.2: 8:43 avg (-12 or limp home)